This Is How Crestview, Niceville, FWB and Other Areas Voted In Okaloosa Elections

First of all – not your neighbors – but how the community you live in voted in the most recent elections on August 20.

With the August primaries out of the way – the big local elections have essentially ended for Okaloosa County, except for a single referendum on the ballot on November 5.

While the big national races may take center stage for the next two months – there are some interesting tidbits that politicos who care about local elections and campaigns might appreciate.

Thanks to the diligence of Supervisor Paul Lux’s team at the Okaloosa Supervisor of Elections Office, we now have election results at the precinct level. That means we can learn more about who put local winners in races over the top this summer.

Most of what we are looking at are the differences in the vote share for candidates based on the area of the county we select. We are deriving the idea that a candidate over or under-performed based on their predicted value (what number of votes a candidate would have received if votes were distributed evenly over the county versus what proportion of votes they received in a geographic area. So, for example, a candidate may have received 50% of the ballots countywide (our predictive value) but received 80% of all of the votes in Niceville. The candidate overperformed in Niceville by 30 points. If you want a complete primer on the statistical definition of predicted value, turn here.

Additionally, I amalgamated Okaloosa County’s 52 precincts into seven regions with separate identities. They are:

• Eglin Air Force Base (literally living on base)
• Greater Niceville (All of Niceville, Bluewater Bay and Valparaiso)
• Greater Fort Walton Beach (FWB, Okaloosa Island, Ocean City, Mary Esther, Wright and Cinco Bayou)
• Destin
• Greater Crestview
• North Okaloosa County (everything north of the Eglin reservation, excluding the more urban areas that make up greater Crestview)
• Shalimar (This would include the Lake Lorraine neighborhood that buts up to Eglin, Poquito Bayou, and Shalimar proper.)

Without further ado, here are eight things we learned from this summer’s primary election data.

Staking Out Regions Can* Be A Winner

Many of these lessons will come from the District 3 County Commissioner Race, as you might have guessed. Because each commissioner race is voted on by all of the residents of the county, wherever they may live, you may see different regions of the county vote for specific candidates – especially for a district as wonky and ‘gerrymandered’ (current Okaloosa County Commissioner Nathan Boyles’ words, not mine) as District 3.

Typically, being a ‘candidate from X area’ may not work out for candidates, as voters from other regions may punish you. But, a strong base of support can pay dividends when you are in a five-person ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’ style race-to-the-last-man-standing. In this case, it worked out for eventual winner Sherri Cox, who locked down Destin and had a strong showing in Fort Walton Beach. Other candidates were able to win ‘home areas’ as well. Heath Rominger did twenty percent better than his average in the greater Niceville area (the most significant margin of overperformance of any candidate in any race). Andrew Rencich overperformed in Crestview, where he’s a sitting city councilman, and Wade Merritt overperformed in the county’s northern reaches.

Keri Pitzer was the only proper ‘cross county’ candidate. She placed second, losing to Sherri Cox by 14 of more than 30,000 votes. Pitzer did not finish first in any region except on base, where she won eight of the twenty-four total votes to be had. However, she kept her name among the top three candidates in each region (second in Crestview, Fort Walton Beach, and North Okaloosa – third in Niceville and Destin). Other candidates who had a strong showing in just one area also had much weaker performances in the different regions of the county. her ability to garner support from all county’s sections allowed Pitzer to come within fourteen votes of a win. Cox’s popularity in the county’s south end, especially in Destin, made the difference for her.

Incumbency Ain’t Nothin to Ignore

Incumbent Commissioner Paul Mixon had the strongest showing throughout the county of any candidate during the primary election. He swept every region of the county – and saw only a slight regional variation. The one thing that almost everyone could agree on in this election was that reelecting Mixon was a good idea.

Working in the Party Pays Dividends/Endorsements Matter

People who’ve put in long hours in the party won in the end – at least this go-round. Candidates who participated in the functions of the Republican Party and worked to get people higher up on the ballot (Matt Gaetz) reelected had pretty success this time around. Paul Mixon, Eric Aden, and Drew Palmer all received endorsements and won. Rencich, who placed third in the District 3 Primary, lost the seat by 227 votes in a five-person race. Mixon, Aden, and Palmer have all publicly gotten out the vote for Gaetz in the past – especially Palmer, who probably had the most formidable single opponent to overcome due to Mary Anne Windes’ name recognition throughout Okaloosa County.

Name Recognition, built before an election, matters.

Speaking of name recognition – building up an extensive reservoir of name recognition throughout the county pays significant dividends for people who want to run for countywide office (duh). Mixon (a commissioner for four years and a pastor of a large church in Crestview), Sherri Cox (an elected Republican Committeewoman and candidate for Destin’s school board seat in 2020), Eric Aden (The incumbent sheriff) and Parker Destin (I mean, he’s a Destin!) had the name recognition to make it easier for them to have success at the ballot box. People aren’t paying attention to (local) politics every day – so having a name people have heard repeatedly matters for a candidate’s chances when their ballot comes in the mail.    

Region > Endorsements

While an endorsement from the political class of Okaloosa County (Think Congressman Gaetz, Senator Don Gaetz, commissioners, city council people, and others) matter – they are not as powerful a factor (based on the data) as geography. Candidates associated with a certain region fare significantly better in that area for the most part. Some examples:

• Sherri Cox (Accused of being a Destin resident throughout the campaign) +11.56% over her countywide average in Destin precincts and -7.56% in North Okaloosa
• Former Niceville Councilman Heath Rominger pulled 49.36% of his vote total from the greater Niceville region alone, earning 36.04% of all Niceville votes.
• Okaloosa County Sheriff candidate Ron Livingston, a north-end resident, overindexed on his share of the vote in the Crestview area.

Lots of People Went to the Polls for Sheriff Aden

Okaloosans cast roughly 36,000 ballots in this primary election, but that doesn’t mean every voter voted for a candidate in each race. Each race received 32,286 votes (the District 3 election) and 34,679 votes (The Sheriff’s Office Race). Many more people were sure about their vote in that race, which showed both in the number of ballots cast and how they were cast. Voters backed Aden in this race more fervently than any other local candidate. Only Paul Mixon earned more total votes than Sheriff Aden, one of the local candidates in the race.

Rough Election for City Councilmen

Only one of four former or currently elected city councilmen won the election (Parker Destin, the winner of the School Board Race, is a former Destin Councilman). Unlike Republican Party functionaries, city council members don’t have an explicit party affiliation when they run for office or serve. In a low-turnout election where most of the partisans are Republicans, it looks like this dynamic heavily favors people who are able to attach Republicans to their name in their previous work.  

Veterans Not Winners In This Round

Only one of four candidates who are a veteran won their election. Drew Palmer in District 5 pulled out the win against Mary Anne Windes. Vets Heath Rominger (Navy), Andrew Rencich (Army), and Wade Merritt (Air Force) lost the District 3 Election.

Data Sets

But don’t believe me, check out the data sets themselves. I’ve put a link so that you can look at each here: