Lower Back Tattoos and RV Sales on Facebook – How’s Our Local Economy Doing This Summer?

Most economists use complicated charts, graphs, standard deviation, and long-forgotten formulae to the rest of us to determine how the national economy is ‘doing.’

But for the rest of us, the thing that matters is the local economy.

So, how is the local economy in southern Okaloosa County doing?

After all, it’s slightly different from the national economy—we’re a lot more stable here. Eglin Air Force Base, Hurlburt fields, and the defense industries generally keep much of the economy afloat. A Haas report we cited in our “Merge Our Cities” brief notes that at least two-thirds of our local economy relies on our local military-test complex.

Still, we rely on various sources – notably the tourism economy – for the rest of our economy and plenty of jobs.

That’s where the excellent, and much more fun, microeconomic indicators come in. Guys like United Fidelity Bank’s Ed Burns use them to determine how our local economy is different.

Ed’s philosophy comes from his traditional banking background for both personal and commercial loans – but it also comes from one of his passions – flipping items for sale on Facebook.

What’s a ‘Local Economy?’

For United Fidelity’s Ed Burns, determining what is and isn’t a part of the local economy is like defining what is. It isn’t a part of the Midwest – generally, reasonable people can agree and disagree on what is and isn’t included in that space. For example, arguments can be made for whether or not Ohio or Kentucky are in the midwest; look at this map. (you should know, I’m a sucker for a good map,). To that end, we aren’t including Crestview and places north in this story – though many reasonable people may line up in the comments section below to tear this article from its electronic staple bindings that hold the site together to point out that may not be the correct thing to do.

That’s great! We want your thoughts!

How is the Local Economy Doing? (+ the number one indicator).

“We’re insulated from the greater economy, but I still think that there’s a lot of hesitation,” Burns said, “People are still a little bit worried about what’s going to happen.” To that end, Burns says, plenty of people still buy regular milk, cheese, eggs, and bread. It’s on luxury purchases that typically involve a loan that Ed says the trepidation has become noticeable. “We’re still in that wait-and-see economy.”

So therein lies the first indicator. RVs, cars, and boats aren’t moving like in a red-hot economy. Based on what he’s seen on local marketplace pages online, sellers must hold on to big-ticket items longer than two years ago. “When things are a good deal, but they are not necessary, like a boat or an RV especially, [they tend to sit.] When it’s an excellent deal, people will come for two, three, or four hours [to buy it].” Right now, though, those items are staying on the market – and there are more. It turns out people are unloading these ‘go and see’ luxury items because they bought them when they had more time during the COVID-19 pandemic. With people back at work in offices, they only have a little time to use these vehicles.

The time to get a second-hand RV or boat in Florida is now – the supply-demand curve is working in the buyer’s favor.

A subset of this one is golf clubs. People have begun to unload golf clubs for the same reason as RVs and Boats. Many people who saw the sport as a good time with some extra free time during the pandemic have realized that ‘back to normal’ means ‘back to less time for golf.’ “People are trying to cut back,” Burns said, “People are going, ‘Well, I don’t have time to use that,’ or ‘I’m not going to use that,’ or ‘I can’t afford it.’

Number 2 Indicator – Sports Bars and Lower Back Tattoos

Ed’s a big sports guy – if he can, he’ll head over to a sports bar occasionally to catch a game with some buddies – usually, though, he avoids them like Spence Parkway on a Saturday afternoon in the Summer. Something’s changed this year, though. “I went into a restaurant on a Friday night,” Burns remembered, “You think it’d be packed to the gills. I mean, I could sit anywhere I wanted to.” Burns says it’s a more minor thing, but it’s a decent indicator of the economy for the area. “I think it goes back to, ‘I don’t think people are spending money like they used to, and people are holding back. If they aren’t spending money, the waiters, waitresses, and bartenders aren’t getting paid, so they are holding on to their money.”

Which brings us to the tattoos portion of this equation: tattoos are, ultimately, a function of the whole local economy. After all, everyone from tourists on vacation to military members and townies gets tattoos – though the Spring Break season, when many people get their tax returns, provides a bump for the people in the business. “So from what I’ve seen with the number of clients I’ve had [at the bank], tax return time is a huge influx in the tattoo industry, typically. That’s right before spring break,” Burns said. He noted that while the tattoo business is still healthy here locally, they didn’t get that sugar-rush-like burst of cash they typically see in the beginning of spring to add some money to their books. “That could be several things, people paying up bills that they let lapse and that income tax [refund] went to pay for that. We know people were taking on more credit card debt than pre-pandemic and shortly after. So, when it comes in, a lot of that money is going to credit card debt. It’s not going to a new tattoo.”

Number 3 Indicator – Sweaty Undershirts

The third and most tried and tested national indicator of a local economy’s health is the men’s sweaty undershirt theory of microeconomics. Ed notes that he didn’t develop this idea on his own. Instead, he credits Alan Greenspan for the theory. Typically, undershirt sales are flat. Men replace them when they need to at about the same rate across the country. But, when people feel less secure about their finances, they tend to buy less men’s underwear. “I mean, how often are people going to see your undershirt? Never,” Burns noted, “a little bleach goes a long way.” He says the indicator works so well because it’s a leading indicator of a change in positive fortunes for the bulk of the buying public. After all, the rich and the poor need to replace undershirts and underwear with some level of frequency.

Indicator 4 – Business Sales

The final indicator for economic health that Ed noted in our conversation – the number of businesses and land for sale in the area. “We are seeing a number of people who are retiring – that are selling businesses, they are selling properties. A number of them are going to large national retail chains – you know, gas stations and things like that,” Burns said, “so that is very optimistic. Northwest Florida, especially Okaloosa and Walton County, is a unique area and a great place.”

Forward-Looking

So, where does this put the local economy in southern Okaloosa County? Burns notes he is “cautiously optimistic. I’m cautious just because of my nature. I’ve seen the great recession. I don’t think anyone is worried about that—no one is worried about a big drop. We know that there will be some corrections, but I think everyone is getting ready for an increase—like when you draw back on a bowstring.”