The Florida ballot for November 3rd’s midterm election allows voters to make important state leadership decisions, like who will be Florida’s next governor, state senator, and representative in Congress. Voters will also decide whether Florida will lower its homestead tax exemption, saving qualified homeowners thousands of tax dollars a year – with some tradeoffs from the services they get from local governments. But the latest trend in elections, using AI to research candidates – may have the biggest effect of all – even here on the Emerald Coast. 

What’s at stake?

In addition to the big names running for big offices, plenty of smaller races and local issues will resolve themselves at the ballot box. For example, Okaloosa County residents will cast votes deciding whether to extend its half-cent sales surtax another 10 years, which funds transportation, public safety, and other projects throughout the community.

Despite midterm elections deciding measures that affect communities at a local level, the LeRoy Collins Institute at Florida State University’s Election Law Center found that Florida midterms from 2000-2024 averaged 3 million fewer voters than presidential elections. That means, at the local level in these midterms – it’s the high-propensity voters who will have a larger share of power, simply because they show up. 

Lonna Rae Atkeson, director of the LeRoy Collins Institute, said the gap in midterm versus presidential election turnout comes down to excitement. 

“There’s this hard group that goes to every vote, and they’re these regular voters. The irregular voters sort of get pushed up in the excitement and enthusiasm of the [presidential] election process because people are talking. Facebook’s talking, Instagram’s talking, right? So it pushes people into being more interested and participating in presidential elections.” 

Current events and national politics during midterm years also affect voter turnout.

“The turnout is higher for the out party [Democrats] than the in party [Republicans], and that’s because the out party is more angry,” Atkeson said. “You know, they’re angry about whatever the in party is doing, and so they’re really enthusiastic because anger is one of those emotions that really motivates people, and it motivates people to punish.”

Predictions for 2026 midterm

Based on her team’s research and current data, Atkeson predicts the 2026 midterm election results will mirror the 2010 midterm, where the U.S. saw a major Republican shift under democratic former President Barack Obama. 

“So Obama gets in in 2008, a pretty big win, 56% of the vote,” Atkeson said. “But then in 2010, he loses the House [of Representatives], and if we look at the state legislatures, he lost a lot of those. … So Obama won, and everyone was excited on that sign. But then everything else went to pot. So, I think the Republicans are in for a real backlash. At least that’s the way it’s looking at going.”

Her prediction stems partly from the fact that Democrats under the Trump Administration instilled anger in their respective voters, Atkeson said.

“I think they’ve had a lot of fodder to do that. But at the same time, it’s sort of interesting because they’ve also pushed down the confidence of their own voters in the election. So that’s sort of an interesting paradox for them, I guess.”

An Oct. 19 Reuters poll determined President Donald Trump has a 31% approval rating, the lowest he’s had at any point during either of his presidential terms. 

Atkeson said history shows this drop in approval will manifest in the 2026 midterm results. 

“That’s what the data seems to be telling us, at least. Of course, election day is really when we know how it all turns out. But the expectation— if you just look at the generic ballot, right? I think it’s 52% [D] to 43% [R], [to control Congress], or something like that. That’s a really big gap. I don’t think we’ve seen that large of a gap in a while.”

Voter education

Atkeson said elections like the upcoming midterm offer an opportunity for Americans to increase their political awareness.

“The average voter doesn’t know very much, but they learn, and they learn through an election,” she said. “An election is something that reminds voters where their interests are and who represents them, and so an election itself is an education process for voters.”

Based on the LeRoy Collins Institute’s findings, Atkeson was surprised by how long voters spend researching their local city/county candidates before voting. According to its Florida Election Study 2024, 37% of Florida voters spend more than 2 hours researching.

Atkeson said even the sources voters use while conducting research can affect their ballot choices on election day.

“People have ideas about whether their local newspaper leans one way or the other,” she said. “And so a graduate student in the department did an experiment where she was looking at this to see how people use that information if they don’t know how to interpret something. So maybe the only thing they can get, because [articles/information] is gated or something, is that their paper endorses X, right? And if they think the paper is not aligned with them politically, then they vote against that person, and vice versa … so sometimes the gated stuff makes it a problem for voters to get the information they need.”

Voting in the age of AI

If used properly, Atkeson said large language model AI platforms can help voters understand tricky ballot text. 

“There is some evidence that [AI] is being persuasive and helping people to identify candidates, but there’s also some other evidence that people who are using it tend to be using it on down-ballot contests where they feel they don’t have any information. … [Political] party is, I think, for quite a while, still going to drive those votes. But I think for lower-level offices, does this help to get us out of polarization? Maybe there can be a benefit there.”

When researching with an AI agent, Atkeson said it’s important to use the right prompts to avoid getting a persuasive, rather than unbiased, response.

“Telling your agent, ‘Well, these are the kinds of candidates I’ve liked previously.’ You might choose a particular position or something like that. Like, what does candidate A feel about data centers, right? What are the issues that are most important to you? And then ask the AI, ‘Well, where do these candidates stand on those issues?’ … Ask these clear questions that get at your issues.”

Despite AI’s ability to offer endless sources for political education, Atkeson suggests engaging in face-to-face conversation.

“A lot of people have discussion partners, right?” she said. “People who they rely on, you know? Maybe they don’t think about them that way, but we could think about them that way. People who they regularly talk to politics about, and who they’re like, ‘oh yeah, that person knows what’s going on,’ you know? 

Head to the polls

Voting for the general midterm election is Nov. 3, though early voting is available now in Okaloosa County from 7 a.m.-7 p.m. 

Find your polling place at voteokaloosa.gov, or check your county’s election website.