CSU Predicts Slightly Below-Average, But Uncertain, 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The Colorado State University’s (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project team has predicted a slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2023. The reason? The experts say the climitalogical phenomena known as El Niño is the primary factor for the below average season.
“We anticipate a near-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean,” a release from the researchers said, “As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”
Although eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are much warmer than normal, Caribbean sea surface temperatures are near their long-term averages, which indicates more uncertainty than normal with this outlook.
The Colorado State University researchers, who are considered the best researchers in the field, predict 13 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, of which researchers expect six to become hurricanes and two to reach major hurricane strength.
They say this prediction based its forecasts on a statistical model that use model output from various weather forecast organizations.
The CSU team has introduced a new metric this year: Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) occurring west of 60°W. ACE is an integrated metric accounting for storm frequency, intensity and duration and is correlated with landfalling storms in the Atlantic basin. The CSU team will issue forecast updates on June 1, July 6 and August 3.
The CSU forecast is intended to provide a best estimate of activity in the Atlantic during the upcoming season, not an exact measure. The researchers caution coastal residents to take proper precautions, as it takes only one storm near the coast to make the season active for them.
Average August-October sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in CSU's 8 analog years for 2023 Atlantic #hurricane season: 1969, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2014, 2015. Analogs selected based on likely #ElNino and above-normal SSTs in tropical Atlantic for August-October. pic.twitter.com/JeCCxnrFVz— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) April 13, 2023
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