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•📋 What: Low mail-in ballot turnout in the January 2025 special election.
•🗓️ When: January 28, 2025, with early voting trends observed in early January.
•📍 Where: Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton Counties, Florida.
•❓ Why: Regulatory delays in ballot requests and active local campaigns contributed to uneven participation across counties.
As someone with a keen interest in data, I’ve observed alarmingly low early mail turnout rates in Florida’s special election for the 1st Congressional District. The numbers are strikingly low compared to typical election cycles, suggesting significant variances in voter engagement and operational adjustments in mail-in ballot distribution. This trend highlights crucial dynamics and potential shifts in voter participation strategies.
In the August 2024 Republican primary for Florida’s 1st Congressional District, more than 21,000 Okaloosa mail-in ballots were dispatched to voters—a stark contrast to the current low turnout in the January 2025 special election.
As of early January, only a few hundred ballots were returned from each county involved, with a high of 2000 in Escambia, signaling a noticeable dip in mail-in voting participation.
For the August 2024 primary, mail-in ballots accounted for approximately 16.3% of the total 27,064 Okaloosa Republican votes cast, with 4,412 voters choosing this method.
As of January 7, 2025, the numbers were much lower, with only 2,795 mail-in ballots returned across Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties, reflecting a potential shift in voter behavior and the perceived urgency of the election.
Broken down by county:
Rounded off total August 2024 Republican primary votes for comparison:
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In Florida, the EARLIEST date for requesting a mail-in ballot for the January 2025 special election was November 6, 2024. So, a voter had to ask for a mail in ballot after the conclusion of the November general election.
Then, due to regulations requiring that overseas military ballots be mailed out at least 45 days prior to election day, which is January 28, 2025. Consequently, this late opening for ballot requests significantly reduced the number of mail-in ballots distributed from the outset.
This restriction has also led to a notably lower rate of returned mail-in ballots as compared to typical elections, where requests and distributions start much earlier.
The best reason I can give for the very wide discrepancy between Okaloosa and Escambia early votes is the vast majority of the 10 candidates are the number of Escambia candidates.
The number of candidates are heavily weighted towards Escambia. Two candidates are listed as residents of Okaloosa, so it may be the individual campaigns combined to create a higher awareness of the special election in Escambia than other counties.
An additional factor that may have influenced the notably high mail-in ballot numbers in Pensacola for the January 2025 special election is the active campaign efforts by local candidates Michael Dylan Thompson and Gay Valimont.
Both candidates, who reside in Escambia County, successfully qualified for the ballot by petition, securing 1,500 signatures within a 10-day period.
This intense local engagement, concentrated in Escambia County, likely contributed to heightened awareness and participation in the electoral process. The surge in mail-in ballot requests and returns could be directly tied to these grassroots movements, emphasizing the impact of candidate-driven voter mobilization on local election dynamics.
These observations highlight the increased importance of each vote in the special election, where the reduced number of participants magnifies the impact of each ballot. This scenario underscores voters’ critical role in electoral outcomes, especially in special elections, which generally see lower turnout than regular primaries.
For those interested in more detailed voting statistics and information, the following resources are available:
About the Author: Henry Kelley is the President of Blue Wind Technology, a Pensacola based company specializing in developing and manufacturing advanced composites for the wind energy sector.
He served as a field artillery officer in the First Gulf War, and was awarded a Bronze Star. Kelley has been involved in Northwest Florida politics for the last two decades.
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