Are You Tracking These Changes in Niceville Real Estate?

“Election year is upon us. Will rates drop even further? Will buyers flood the market? We will continue to monitor the data for you and continue to keep you informed.”

I wrote these words a year ago. I also made a joke about Florida State’s football team not being selected for the college football playoffs.

Are they doing any better this year? 

Rates did not drop, and buyers did not flood the market. But that does not mean real estate isn’t transacting. Let’s see what the data is showing happened in October of this year compared to last year (you know, when we thought the sky was falling). 

In October of last year, the average sales price was sub $500,000, while this year, the average sales price for the Niceville Valparaiso area for last month was $513,329. In addition, the average sales price year to date (at the time of this writing) is $529,000 compared to the previous year’s YTD of $512,000. 

Here is where (I think) it gets interesting. 

Properly pricing a home is very important. Whether you are listing your house for sale or are a buyer trying to decide what to offer, that decision doesn’t come lightly. Days on the market have increased from 86 days to 104 days year over year. Houses are selling for a higher average price and higher average square footage price but are sitting on the market almost a month longer.

What does increased average pricing mean when we see the average market days increase? It can mean a few things:

• There are less buyers in the market due to being priced out with increasing prices.
• A shift towards a buyers’ market. The absorption rate is one way to determine whether we are in a sellers’ or buyers’ market. If no new homes hit the market, how many months of inventory do we have before we run out of homes for sale? That’s the absorption rate! Real estate professionals typically look at less than four months as a sellers’ market, between four and six months as balanced. Six months or longer is a buyers’ market. Right now, the Niceville Valparaiso area is sitting with around 4 months of inventory, implying a relatively balanced market.
• Sellers’ expectations. It appears sellers are willing to let the house sit on the market a little longer to achieve their desired sales price.

It also suggests a cooling off in the market. But when 44 homes sold in October of this year versus 38 homes sold last year, and the average sales price increased, you have to wonder what the future of home prices are in our area. The narrative is consistent. Buying or selling cannot be perfectly timed with the market. If you are in the need to transact real estate, you can. Using current data and the advice of a professional you can navigate the market as it sits. Do you think you’re priced out of the market? You may be but have that conversation with your local lender and real estate agent, find something that fits your needs, and make an offer. The market will continue to shift (in any direction) the more the consumer dictates it. Realtors, the news, and home sellers do not determine sales prices. The buyers in the market make that determination. 

*All 2024 data is provided by Flex/MLS as provided by Emerald Coast Association of Realtors and is deemed reliable as of November 4, 2024, but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.