We are four months into the 2026 hurricane season, and not a single one has yet to form. But with a storm building on the horizon, will the quiet come to an end?
It is the beginning of October, and the Atlantic Coast has yet to produce a hurricane. The first time in 112 years. Now, a developing Gulf system may break that streak.
In a typical hurricane season, we usually have about ten named storms. Five become hurricanes, and two are classified as major, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). And with only a couple of months of hurricane season remaining, it begs the question: will 2026 go without a single hurricane?
Maybe not.
A low-pressure system in the Gulf near Mexico has strengthened into a tropical storm. Named Isaias, AccuWeather projects it will make landfall between southeast Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, where officials have already begun preparing.
When asked about the chance of the system becoming a hurricane on Wednesday, October 6th, meteorologist Spinks Megginson gave it a 25% chance; “Most of the scenarios take it up to tropical storm intensity and bring it ashore either Friday or Saturday, but again, there’s a lot of uncertainty still in the forecast.”
With the storm still in the early stages of development, the exact landfall location and storm intensity remain uncertain. However, if the current landfall prediction holds, the panhandle is likely to be on the messier side of the storm.
Megginson explained that both Okaloosa and Walton counties should expect “lots of rain through the weekend,” high winds, flooding, and possibly “a tornado threat setting up as soon as Friday evening, and then on Saturday into Sunday.”
He continued to warn about the unpredictability of storms, how anything can change in the matter of hours, and advised the community to “please just stay out of the water.”
While meteorologists continue to track how the storm could evolve, county officials are focused on what those changing conditions would mean for residents on the ground.
Okaloosa County Director of Public Safety Patrick Maddox explained how his team is preparing for the storm. Currently, Emergency Management is at a level three enhanced monitoring, meaning they “are model reading and forecasting and writing draft incident action plans, spinning up incident management teams, and preparing for what were to happen if this system were to come our way.”
A major concern remains about the county’s evacuation routes. One of these routes includes State Road 85, a highway running from Fort Walton Beach to the Florida/Alabama state line. Currently, only part of the road is six lanes, while it drops to four lanes as it continues towards Crestview. When asked about this concern, Maddox explained that the evacuation routes have plans in place to prevent mass buildup. “We can look at how many cars we can put on a road at any given time, factor in when the most reasonable likelihood arrival of tropical storm force winds are, and then gain a timing on when we should evacuate.”
According to a Public Information Officer, the Florida Department of Transportation has been “developing plans to widen State Road 85 near Crestview to six lanes to alleviate congestion on daily commutes, but it will also improve evacuation operations.”
Jeff Goldberg, Director of Walton County Emergency Management, said Walton County is well prepared for any upcoming emergencies. “We have what’s called a hurricane response timeline, which gives us certain things that we do and certain benchmarks. But we’re confident, based upon the numbers, that the people that we feel need to get out of the area will get out of the area.”
Similar to State Road 85, Highway 331 in Walton County also faces similar congestion problems. When asked about the reliability of 331 as an evacuation route, Walton County Administrator Brian Kellenberger said the county has adequate evacuation routes, but they are “extremely dependent on a timely and orderly procession of evacuees.”
It has been unbelievably quiet here in the Atlantic, four months into the hurricane season. Meaning Tropical Storm Isaias may be the first. If it isn’t, the 2026 season will remain the first in 112 years without a hurricane thus far.
Residents of Okaloosa and Walton counties should continue to monitor the storm and stay aware of potential flood risks. It is advised to have an evacuation plan in place.
